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快讯|马云的南华早报提前预告给世人心理承受力:王岐山将离开中共最高权力层|安倍晋三 ...

2017-10-23 12:06| 发布者: 咖啡沾衣| 查看: 969| 评论: 0|原作者: 弯弯

摘要: 马云的南华早报提前预告给世人心理承受力:王岐山将离开中共最高权力层 ,他的结局如何? http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2116284/hes-anti-graft-tsar-about-leave-chinas-top-leadersh ...
马云的南华早报提前预告给世人心理承受力:王岐山将离开中共最高权力层 ,他的结局如何?
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2116284/hes-anti-graft-tsar-about-leave-chinas-top-leadership
10月25日,中共十九届一中全会揭幕,新一届中央政治局常委将在十九届一中全会后亮相。港媒《南华早报》10月19日指出,中央办公厅主任栗战书将晋升为政治局常委,并内定为权利第3顺位的中国人大常务委员长。中纪委书记王岐山的后任者内定为中央组织部部长赵乐际。
  早前有消息称,栗战书会接任王岐山的职位。

对此《南华早报》引用“知情人士”的话表示,现任中国人大常务委员长张德江将在2018年3月份退休,因此,栗战书将会接任此职位。但尚不清楚他是否同样接管港澳事务。赵乐际则会从王岐山手中接任中纪委书记,并“很可能会兼掌国家监察委。”
  中共十九大首场记者会上,中纪委副书记杨晓渡表示,成立国家监察委员会,是中共党中央做出的重大政治决策,目的是加强党对反腐败工作的集中统一领导,构建集中统一、权威高效的国家监察体系。
  杨晓渡指出,中纪委和监察委是一个班子、两套牌子。
  香港《明报》10月20日报道了最新流传的7名常委版本。报道指出,除了国家主席习近平、国务院总理李克强两人外,还会有国务院副总理汪洋、中央政策研究室主任王沪宁、中央组织部长赵乐际、上海市委书记韩正、中央办公厅主任栗战书5人

He’s the anti-graft tsar about to leave China’s top leadership. So what will happen to Wang Qishan?  ~Wang Qishan, a key ally of President Xi Jinping, could be given position on powerful National Security Commission

Wang Qishan, the feared anti-graft tsar billed as “China’s second most powerful man”, is likely to step down from the ruling Communist Party’s supreme Politburo Standing Committee on Wednesday, sources have told the South China Morning Post.


On Sunday, delegates to the party’s national congress in Beijing held closed-door meetings to discuss the lists of candidates for its elite Central Committee and anti-graft watchdog, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. Two sources who have seen the lists confirmed to the Post that Wang was not among the names, meaning he will step down from the Politburo Standing Committee.
Zhao Leji, the party’s organisation chief, appeared on both lists, confirming an earlier Post exclusive report that he is expected to take over anti-corruption responsibilities from Wang.
But the trusted ally of President Xi Jinping is unlikely to go into full retirement. Nicknamed the party’s “fire chief” for his ability to manage political crises, Wang could still help Xi in some other capacity, sources familiar with the top-level discussion said.

Speculation about Wang’s future dominated overseas media discussion of the party’s national congress – which will usher in sweeping leadership changes – ahead of its opening on Wednesday. That is a reflection of the weight Wang carries as the galvanising force behind Xi’s popular anti-corruption campaign, a role that has made him widely respected and feared within the party.

It is understood that Xi has carefully weighed his options and consulted Wang. In the end, the president decided to let Wang retire from the Politburo Standing Committee largely because he had reached the unofficial retirement age.
An unwritten party rule dictates that all members of its top decision-making body aged 68 or older at the time of a party congress should step down. Wang turned 69 in July.



There were earlier indications the rule might be relaxed, paving the way for Wang to remain a Politburo Standing Committee member. But sources said that Xi ultimately leaned towards maintaining political continuity and stability when deciding the leadership line-up.
“The age limit and seniority still matter in deciding a candidate,” a source said. “These norms are important to forge consensus [among different factions] and maintain stability.”
China watcher Trey McArver, co-founder of Beijing-based research firm Trivium China, said Xi valued the importance of established political norms.

“Xi first and foremost is a party man, and his main goal is to strengthen the party,” he said. “As a child of the Cultural Revolution, he understands the importance of the political norms … he definitely does not want to do anything that would be destabilising to the system that has been created and has been very successful and stable over the past 40 years.”
McArver said Xi could change or negotiate some sort of exception to the norms if necessary, but he would back off if it risked undermining party stability.
“Part of the reason Xi is so powerful is because he has a broad range of support at the top of the party,” he said. “He would seek consensus if he wanted to keep Wang on … if he did perceive there would be a political cost, or there was no buy in from other members of the political elite, I think he might back off.”



Another factor is Wang’s own preference. Having enjoyed a successful career, a source said Wang wanted to “bow out on a high note”. He is understood to have asked people close to him whether he should stay, and in the end decided it would be better to take a more back-seat role rather than stay on the front line.
“I don’t think Xi is going to keep somebody on if they don’t want to stay there,” McArver said.



With his wealth of political experience and influence, it is unlikely Wang will go into full retirement, with a source saying Xi would carve out a new role for his trusted ally.
It is not immediately clear what that new role would be. One suggestion is that Wang might take up a position at the powerful National Security Commission (NSC).
Established in 2014, the NSC provides unified leadership for different security apparatus. It wields tremendous power and is headed by Xi himself. Photos from its first publicised meeting – on April 15, 2014 – showed that its members include 12 Politburo members and eight top officials from the government and military.



Some of them, such as former Chongqing party boss Sun Zhengcai, have since fallen from grace. Others are due to retire at the end of the party congress on Tuesday, opening up the opportunity for sweeping changes.
Last month, just weeks before the opening of the party congress, Wang met Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in Beijing at the latter’s request. A few days later he met American President Donald Trump’s former chief strategist Steve Bannon, who stepped down from the US National Security Council in April.




安倍晋三执政联盟胜选 暗示将推动修宪工作||华尔街日报


本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)在周日的全国选举中再次赢得选民的大力肯定。他暗示,这样的结果将激励他推动对日本1947年制定的宪法进行首次修订。

日本几家电视台报道称,在几乎所有选举结果都已确定的情况下,安倍晋三所在的自民党(Liberal Democratic Party)及其执政联盟伙伴在众议院选举中保住了三分之二的多数议席。最终的正式结果将于周一公布。


今年早些时候,安倍晋三受到有关他为朋友的生意提供帮助的徇私指控,导致支持率大幅下滑。之后,安倍晋三利用反对党乱局以及自己支持率回升的机会提出提前逾一年举行选举。

在为期12天的竞选活动期间,安倍晋三将此次选举描绘成选民对他处理经济和朝鲜威胁能力的公投。日本经济过去一年半持续增长,为超过10年来最长的增长纪录,同时,安倍晋三对朝鲜采取了与美国总统特朗普(Donald Trump)类似的强硬立场。

此次胜选有望使现年63岁的安倍晋三成为日本执政时间最长的首相。如果安倍晋三的在任时间持续到2019年11月,他将获得这一殊荣。

安倍晋三暗示,在胜选后他将推动修改日本宪法的工作。自2006年首次出任日本首相以来,安倍晋三一直把修宪作为他的一个目标。

安倍晋三在一次电视采访中称,日本政府需要民众的理解。

安倍晋三在今年5月份日本宪法实施70周年时称,日本议员应该讨论的修宪理由包括:日本面临的安全威胁加大、人口老龄化以及经济复苏的需要。安倍晋三将2020年定为修宪的目标时间。

要修改宪法,修宪动议须获得日本国会三分之二议员的赞成票,随后必须在全国公投中获得多数国民的支持。2012年,日本自民党曾提出一份对宪法进行广泛修改的提议,但由于遇到政治阻力该提议很快遭弃。

东京都知事小池百合子(Yuriko Koike)领导的中右翼新政党也可能使得修宪动议更容易获得日本国会的批准,因为该党支持安倍晋三的修宪想法。

小池百合子在选举后接受电视采访时称,就修宪举行一次切实的全国性讨论的时机即将来临。





失算的諜戰:郭文貴、劉彥平與川普、FBI







戴安娜·安古洛,见证中国历史转折的西方来客||纽约时报

身为一名美国外交官和海军军官的女儿,戴安娜·哈钦斯·安古洛生命中的前二十年是在北京和上海度过的。那是两次世界大战的间隙,中国已推翻封建王朝,但尚未落入毛泽东手中。直到十几岁,戴安娜才意识到,她近距离见证了中国的一场大动荡。


身为一名美国外交官和海军军官的女儿,戴安娜·哈钦斯·安古洛(Diana Hutchins Angulo)在海外度过了看上去十分恬静祥和的童年,忙着参加各种国宴、马术课,探访充满异域风情的集市和古迹。直到母亲开始用弹片作为家里的装饰品时,十几岁的戴安娜才逐渐深切意识到,她近距离见证了中国的一场大动荡,由于日后共产主义中国的闭关锁国,这将是一个时常被遗忘的时期。

成年后的安古洛是纽约上流社会各种场合的常客,但她生命中的前二十年是在北京和上海度过的,当时,她和家人在一个正经历身份认同危机的国度里过着富裕的生活。那是两次世界大战的间隙,中国已推翻封建王朝,但尚未落入毛泽东手中。

亲历过该时期的西方人士渐次凋零,于6月9日在宾夕法尼亚州布林莫尔去世、享年98岁的安古洛,便是其中之一。那时候,中国对很多人来说仍是相当模糊的概念。

“我还记得,上世纪三四十年代,我得向朋友和熟人解释,上海既不位于朝鲜半岛,也不是新加波南部的一个热带岛,”她在2008年出版的一本不起眼的回忆录《北京的太阳与上海的月亮——来自一个逝去时代的影像》(Peking Sun, Shanghai Moon: Images From a Past Era) 中写道。

这本书配的插图是她父亲、海军上校小查尔斯·托马斯·哈钦斯(Charles Thomas Hutchins Jr.)拍的照片。安古洛于1918年11月22日出生后不久,她父亲便作为一名海军武官被派驻到当时还叫作北平的北京。她的母亲艾琳·玛丽·沃伦·安格林(Eileen Mary Warren Anglin)是加拿大国会下议院议长蒂莫西·安格林(Timothy Anglin)的女儿。


安古洛的回忆录。封面图为安古洛(右)和朋友伊塔拉·基耶里尼在上海以北的威海卫(后更名为威海)海滨度假地。

一家人在1919年抵达北京时,中国仍处于从封建王朝向共和国转型的过程。尽管城外的局势远远谈不上稳定,但正如安古洛所说,她过的是“养尊处优”的生活:一个肾形泳池,一位女家庭教师,以及一场又一场的儿童派对,派对上有“玩杂耍的,吞火的,有木偶剧,偶尔还有俄罗斯跳舞熊”。而在北京城外,军阀正争权夺利,日本人正磨刀霍霍。

九年后,一次人员调动把一家人带往夏威夷,但两年后他们重返中国,这一次是到上海,她的父亲是驻扎在那里的一艘军舰的指挥官。“比起北平,上海的生活更为疯狂,”她写道,因为那里汇聚着来自各个国家的人士。但在安古洛忙于参加舞会、骑马、去高档餐馆之际,局势日渐恶化。日本和中国濒临开战,到1937年,炸弹开始落在黄浦江附近的国际公共租界不远处,令人惶恐不安——安古洛和家人就住在租界里。

“当轰炸、炮击和战斗在黄浦江两岸上演,置身其中的我们成了报道这一切的无证记者,”安古洛写道,“我们的露台常常落满超现实形状的弹片。我母亲曾用形状较为奇特的弹片来装点那些装饰风烟灰缸。”

安古洛的父亲于1938年12月因病去世,但母亲不顾日益增加的危险,留在了上海。二战开始后,日本人占领上海,将她关进了一个临时集中营。她于1944年被遣返。

安古洛则在此前过上了另一种生活。上海滩的派对并未因轰炸而中断,她在一场派对上遇到了美国中尉詹姆斯·罗克韦尔(James Rockwell)。两人结了婚;1940年,罗克韦尔被调回美国,她也一同前往。洛克威尔于1965年去世;她在1970年改嫁给纽约一家跨国律所的律师曼努埃尔·安古洛(Manuel Angulo)。他已于1996年去世;安古洛夫人身后留有一个女儿——阿利克斯·罗克韦尔·雅各布斯(Alix Rockwell Jacobs),两名孙辈,以及两名重孙辈。

战后她到过很多地方(其中包括在2005年以87岁高龄重返中国,重访当年的住所),但她生命中的前20年,尤其是在上海度过的时光,总是在她的脑海中清晰地再现。

“战前的最后几年有种强烈的不真实感,”她写道。“我们眼看着外国人在上海、中国乃至远东高高在上的地位一点点消失。”


安古洛,摄于1999年。







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